The Development of a Simple Spreadsheet-Based Method for Extending ComBase Models Beyond Their Limits to Growth at Low Temperature Conditions

Autores/as

  • Donald W Schaffner Schaffner Department of Food Science, Rutgers University

Resumen

Microbial growth models are limited in experimental design by practical and budgetary constraints. This means that any model that is developed will not cover the entire range of conditions over which a microorganism is known to grow. In those situations where microbial growth must be predicted outside the range of the model a conservative (fail-safe) choice is to use the lowest permitted conditions of the model. This manuscript presents a simple spreadsheet-based approach for extrapolating microbial growth below the limits in ComBase predictor using Salmonella as an example. The modeling is divided into two phases. In the first phase Excel is used to predict the increase in Salmonella concentration for temperatures above the limit to grow but below the lower limit of the ComBase model. In the second phase, ComBase is used to predict growth as it would normally be done. The results are then combined to identify the time at which the Salmonella concentration hits a specific target (in this case a 0.5 log CFU increase). While the approach outlined here is relatively simple in concept, the application can be complex since it is implemented in a spreadsheet. This approach has proved useful for making predictions in situations where the behavior of pathogens below the ComBase lower limits to prediction, but above the pathogen and lower limits to growth must be estimated.Vol 29,

Descargas

Publicado

2021-10-29

Número

Sección

Artículos